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Lesson 5: The Flop
WAIT TO DROP THE HAMMER!!
One of the more
unique attributes of low limit hold 'em is that the pots often get so enormous
before the flop that anyone who got even a sliver of help from the flop is
frequently justified in continuing on with their hand. For the player holding
pocket aces, this can be incredibly frustrating, since it can seem like the
river brings one miracle card after another—all of which help our opponent
without helping you.
Alas, there is
nothing you can do about this. If you have pocket kings, and our opponent has
pocket fives, and your opponent has decided that he's going to go to the river
with his hand no matter what, then there's nothing on God's green Earth that you
can do when he catches a five on the river. But, there are plenty of occasions
where your opponents will take a look at the turn with a long shot draw, but
will not look at the river IF you're able to charge them two big bets on the
turn to continue with their hands. Thus, it often makes sense to just call (or
even check) on the flop with a fairly big yet vulnerable hand, with the
intention of slapping your opponents with a raise on the turn. While this play
lets them see the turn cheaply, it goes a long way towards keeping them from
looking at the river. And when the pots get big, taking a few calculated risks
early in the hand is often a good idea if it improves your chances of winning
the pot.
Let's look at an
example. You have pocket 9's on the button, and call after four other players
have called. Now the small blind raises, and all call to the man on your right
who three bets. You call, and all call. Seven players to the flop for three bets
each. The flop comes Jh 9h 6d. All check the the man on your right who bets.
You should just
call here. Although most players will raise, in an attempt to protect their
equity in the pot, it's important to note that anyone who has a draw to a
hand that would beat you will call two bets here just as easily as they
would call one. A hand like Kh Ts, for example, is probably going to see the
turn no matter what. So is a hand like Td 7d. However, while these hands are
going to see the turn no matter what the price, they may not go to the river if
they're faced with the prospect of paying two big bets. If you just call the
flop here, the player to your right will probably bet the turn as well. Now you
can raise and charge the field two bets. If, however, you raised here, there's a
good chance that the man on your right would check the turn, which means you'd
only have the opportunity to charge the field one bet. If a player goes on to
beat you on the river you have lost a lot if he would have folded for two bets
on the turn.
In order for
this play to work, you need a couple things going for you. First, you want to be
fairly sure that the turn bet is going to come from your right. Second, be
confident that there are plenty of possible hands your opponents could be
holding that will call two flop bets as easily as they'd call just one. Also,
check and make sure the pot is big enough (say, larger than 13 small bets or so)
to justify taking this kind of risk. If the pot is small, you're better of
raising the flop, which will make any of your opponents’ calls on the flop a
horrible mathematical mistake.
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